Well, here we go again. This issue with Iran seems to be a never-ending sitcom rerun that just keeps looping. Are we doomed to repeat history again, and again, and again? How many times have we been here before? Why are we here yet another time?
One could argue that we are here because Iran never intends on giving up on its ambitions to become a nuclear power and have a stockpile of nuclear weapons. Yes, many nations do, but few use proxy terrorist groups to serve their political will, as Iran has done and is doing still in the Middle East. A nuclear power nation-state giving nuclear weapons to a terrorist organization is indeed the “Sum of All Fears” a phrase Tom Clancy once penned. Since the U.S. has exited the Iranian Nuclear Deal and put in harsh economic sanctions, the Iranians have decided to increase the number of high-tech centrifuges to enrich uranium faster towards weapons-grade. Some estimates now put the enrichment endeavors within 3-5 months of enough nuclear material to make a bomb. Other estimates put it at 10-months. Iran has demonstrated its ballistic missile technology and all they need is a warhead detonation device, which they also have the technological know-how to make if they haven’t already created one or many. Breakout Time and Uranium Enrichment Breakout time is the amount of time it takes to go from your stockpile of uranium to weapons-grade uranium. Essentially, there are many factors involved such as how enriched your current uranium is, the number of and types of centrifuges you have or will employ, and your capability or nuclear expertise. Yes, there are other factors but in a nutshell that is the basic formula for Breakout Time for weapons-grade nuclear material. The original JCPOA or The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the Iranian Nuclear Deal, is a 159-page agreement and roadmap. It tells us how much enriched uranium can be stored, the number and types of centrifuges, the types of nuclear power plants planned, and compliance of it all. The Iranian Regime did not honor its side of the agreement and had not declared all of its facilities, plans, or intentions according to researchers at the Atlantic. One of the goals of the JCPOA was to make sure Iran’s breakout time was never shorter than one year. The JCPOA may never have accomplished that, and now that Iran has restarted its centrifuges it has blown past all the previous limits of the JCPOA. Should the U.S. Have Stayed In the JCPOA? President Trump told the American People that the Iran Nuclear Deal was the ‘most horrible deal ever made’ and although it may not be the worst in all of human history, one could argue that it certainly ranks high as being fairly worthless. The checks and balances and compliance have turned out to be less-than-favorable and Iran obviously never intended on complying with anything. Thanks to harsh economic sanctions Iran is running out of options and will have to come to renegotiate soon says policy analysts at the leading policy think tank. Lately, they’ve gotten a bit of a reprieve from France and Germany who’ve invoked a clause in the JCPOA for dispute resolution, but unless that is extended or there is better compliance with the original agreement, it’s unlikely to be resolved. Suffice it to say, getting out of the JCPOA may have caused some short-term crisis, but in the long-term, it was perhaps the best policy, explains leading foreign policy analysts at the FDD. Will Iran Get the Bomb? President Trump has drawn a red line in the sand on that issue stating that ‘Iran can never have nuclear weapons’ and we should take him at his word on that. The JCPOA is only paperwork, a 159-pages of nothing if Iran never intended on complying with it in the first place, and continues to stall inspectors from visiting its facilities and hiding its capabilities. The JCPOA was an attempt to keep Iran from getting a nuclear weapon for at least a decade, by keeping their breakout time over 1-year. Thus, giving a chance to diplomacy to deal with the problem if they reneged on the agreement explain experts on diplomacy and foreign policy. Critics of Trump’s move to exit the agreement say; Iran is enriching uranium again and will have a nuclear weapon soon. But in reality, this has been Iran’s plan all along and without teeth in the agreement, they’d eventually have had a nuclear weapon anyway. Iran would have merely surprised the world one day with a nuclear weapon, perhaps given a nuclear weapon to a Middle East terrorist organization. This current powerplay from the Trump Administration may in fact work and prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, indicate diplomatic researchers at the FDD. It looks like the Trump Administration may pull off another big win in a new Iranian deal in 2020. Time will tell, of course, everything is fluid at this point. Comments are closed.
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AuthorExpert on the Iran Nuclear Deal and Global Threat Network Archives
October 2018
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