Armenian-Azerbaijani clashes recently intensified, worrying some foreign policy experts over regional escalation and even global involvement. The conflict is an ongoing one as Joseph Stalin decided that Armenian-majority Artsakh would be controlled by the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic back in the 1920s. Decades later, the Soviet Union collapsed and resulted in 15 new countries, including Armenia and Azerbaijan. Conflicts occurred throughout the region due to Stalin's haphazard borders that didn't align with regional ethnic groups, the partial result of which was a 1994 Armenian victory over the disputed Artsakh parcel whereby they asserted its independence. Nonetheless, that assertion went largely unrecognized.
Dispute Over Artsakh Coming To a Head Despite the May 1994 ceasefire, skirmishes continued to occur in the mountains of Artsakh, also known as Nagorno-Karabakh, in 2016 and in July of 2020, and those battles are intensifying. The landlocked region is disputed by Armenia and Azerbaijan, and it also borders Iran, which has resulted in Iranian villages largely comprised of Azerbaijani communities being impacted by the conflict. To further complicate matters, Artsakh is prime real estate for minerals, mulberries, alpines, and oil pipelines that churn out enough oil to export all over the world, including 40% of Israel's oil supply. The Armenian-Azerbaijani border with Iran, the oil pipeline issue, and the impact to major regional players, such as Russia, Turkey, and China, is not going unnoticed by U.S.-Iranian policy experts. The situation recently took a turn for the worse as both Armenia and Azerbaijan declared martial law and began prepping forces after Azerbaijan regained control over a portion of the Araz River. It is in this area where Tehran partners with Armenian occupation authorities on a hydroelectric project that is now at risk and creates a vested interest on the part of Tehran on behalf of Armenia. However, Iran has a two-thirds Azerbaijani population with a significant portion located in villages impacted by conflict zones and in Tehran where protests against Tehran's support of Armenia are occurring. The current conflict may add fuel to the ongoing protests over Iran's regime as protestors are arrested and Amnesty International expresses concern for their safety. Iran in a Precarious Place Recently, demonstrators in support of Azerbaijan protested Tehran's inaction against Russia's convoys, which funneled supplies to Armenian troops through Iran. Iranian officials acknowledge Tehran's long-standing support of Armenia and worry about Azerbaijan's influence on its majority Azerbaijani population. If Azerbaijan is successful in gaining active support from Azerbaijani-Iranians, Iran may very well have to rethink its support of Armenia and, by extension, Russia. On the other hand, Iran seeks to benefit from an alliance with Russia and China given the recent U.S. sanctions and the desire by some in the regime to challenge U.S. power. Both options carry great risk and leave Iran in a precarious position, as well as the region, according to Middle East policy analysts. Iran's support of Armenia and Russia is not winning favor with Turkey, either, as Turkey supports Azerbaijan. Turkish media has vocalized its discontent with Iran and made its displeasure clear. In addition to words, Turkey recently took action as it has been decreasing its natural gas exports from Iran since last year. They have also openly mocked Iran's "Islamic solidarity" talk as rhetoric, and as being in conflict with their support of Christian-majority Armenia. Moreover, credible reports claim Turkey is mobilizing its militant proxies from Syria to Azerbaijan as tensions increase, a report which Azerbaijan denies but Armenia takes seriously. Will Global Intervention Bring Peace or Conflict? Despite previous relations between Turkey and Russia, the two countries now find themselves on opposing sides. While Russia has initiated intense military drills and communicated a strong showing, Russia may be stretched thin from other military engagements, not to mention Putin's low approval ratings due to his handling of the pandemic and political dissidence. Foreign policy analysts are encouraging the international community to intervene. Other analysts and experts agree as concerns for increased regional instability grow, and some quietly express the possibility of an even greater global conflict due to the number of key players involved, each with competing interests. Comments are closed.
|
AuthorExpert on the Iran Nuclear Deal and Global Threat Network Archives
October 2018
Categories |